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Review – The Panic Of 1819 (#history, #economics, #banking)

The Panic of 1819: Reactions and Policies (buy on Amazon.com)

by Murray Rothbard, published 1962, 2007

A “valueprax” review always serves two purposes: to inform the reader, and to remind the writer. Find more reviews by visiting the Virtual Library. Please note, this book is also available as a free PDF on the Mises.org website, which is how I read it [PDF]

Introduction

Rothbard’s “The Panic of 1819″ is a lot of things, but the thing it is most is yet another reminder of the old dictum “Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose”. Contained in this approximately 250-page reporting of the causes, consequences and social responses to the Panic of 1819 are the same behaviors and political programs that could be found in today’s headlines about corrupt Chinese banking practices, Chicago-school monetarism and Keynesian pump priming, including early recognition that attempts to kickstart “idle resources” logically implies a totalitarian command economy where the government manages all resources (and all people) at all times.

It’s all here, and more. There is nothing new under the sun.

How the business cycle gets started

Early on page 16 the reader is entreated to an excerpt from private correspondence between Pennsylvania politician Condy Raguet and European economist Richard Cantillon in which Raguet tries to clear Cantillon’s confusion as to how fractional reserve banking manages to operate to the point of a catastrophic bubble instead of wobbling and crashing under its own confusing weight:

You state in your letter that you find it difficult to comprehend, why person who had a right to demand coin from the Banks in payment of their notes, so long forebore to exercise it. This no doubt appears paradoxical to one who resides in a country where an act of parliament was necessary to protect a bank, but the difficulty is easily solved. The whole of our population are either stockholders of banks or in debt to them. It is not the interest of the first to press the banks and the rest are afraid. This is the whole secret. An independent man, who was neither a stockholder or debtor, who would have ventured to compel the banks to do justice, would have been persecuted as an enemy of society.

Today’s full reserve Austrian economists, caught between clueless and complacent bank executives, a massively indebted “ownership society” public, Keynesian and monetarist adherents and “free banking” friends who are anything but, simply has no place to turn for safety. He defaults to “enemy of society” status in the ensuing confusion though he seeks only to point out the folly of these fractional reserve systems which inevitably injure all in tying their fates by one string.

The Panic of 1819 followed the War of 1812. During the war, imports and exports came to a halt due to the sea being a battleground and many products which would’ve been imported were kept in their home (overseas) markets to furnish the war effort. As a result, the young States United of America saw the development and growth of domestic manufactures and exportable industries. However, when the war ended and international trade resumed, many domestic manufacturers found they weren’t actually competitive facing world markets (this makes sense because if they had been they probably would’ve developed before the war, not during it in a period of “isolationism”). This created a nascent strain of “protectionist” thinking and monied interests who saw a benefit to adding tariffs on imported products.

The end of the war and the resumption of trade saw a banking boom (fractional reserve) which finally ended in 1819 with the panic. From about 1819-1823 the country was in and out of what could be termed depressed economic conditions. In many ways the early country’s experience mirrored the present day experience from 2008-2009 onward, especially the contentious economic and political debates about how to respond.

Something I found fascinating was what happened to various “macro” economic metrics during the Panic (what we’d call a crash):

The credit contraction also caused public land sales to drop sharply, falling from $13.6 million in 1818 to $1.7 million in 1820, and to $1.3 million in 1821. Added to a quickened general desire for a cash position, it also led to high interest rates and common complaint about the scarcity of loanable funds.

That last bit is especially fascinating to me. I don’t know what the state of federal funded debt was in this time period as Rothbard doesn’t really go into the concept or existence of a “risk free rate” but it is interesting to see “deflation” leading to HIGHER rather than LOWER interest rates. In today’s topsy turvy world, low rates are supposed to be the result of the flight to safety during a depression while high rates are supposed to herald an economic recovery. However, it seems it was just the opposite in 1819.

I found myself charmed by the ability of so many in 1819 to see what was the cause of the bubble and the collapse, even politicians. For example, in an address supporting a “relief bill”, Illinois Senator Ninian Edwards observed:

The debtors, like the rest of the country, had been infatuated by the short-lived, “artificial and fictitious prosperity.” They thought that the prosperity would be permanent. Lured by the cheap money of the banks, people were tempted to engage in a “multitude of the wildest projects and most visionary speculations,” as in the case of the Mississippi and South Sea bubbles of previous centuries.

I enjoyed learning that even medical analogies to describe the cause and effect of monetary expansion and collapse were popular in 1819. One government committee, the Hopkinson Committee, arguing against “debt relief” legislation, noted:

palliatives which may suspend the pain for a season, but do not remove the disease, are not restoratives of health; it is worse than useless to lessen the present pressure by means which will finally plunge us deeper into distress.

I thought that pain pill and hangover analogies were something recent and peculiar to adherents of the Austrian school but critics knew of these rhetorical flourishes even two hundred years ago, at least!

On the topic of “flight to safety”, I did make note of one paragraph which seemed to suggest that while interest rates on bank debt and other commercial lending may have risen, interest rates fell dramatically on tax-backed (ie, “guaranteed”) government issues, for example:

“A Pennsylvanian” pointed to United States and City of Philadelphia 6 percent bonds being currently at 3 percent about par– indicating a great deal of idle capital waiting for return of public confidence before being applied to the relief of commerce and manufacturing. Thus, in the process of criticizing debtors’ relief legislation, the “Pennsylvanian” was led beyond a general reference to the importance “confidence” to an unusually extensive analysis of the problems of investment, idle capital, and the rate of interest.

This theme of “idle capital” was remarked on more than once in the text and by various parties with differing viewpoints. This is a particular fetish of Keynesians and monetarists who cite the existence of “idle capital” as an excuse for government to raise public spending to “put it to work.” It is fascinating to see these early Americans predicted Keynesianism by almost 150 years!

Another thing I found remarkable was the prevalence of either state-owned banks (federal, with the Bank of the United States, or individual states) or strong political pushes to establish these banks in response to the ensuing depression and the stress this created on the banking system. In other words, nationalization of the banking industry as a political prop to collapsing FRB institutions is nothing new:

The Alabama experience highlights the two basic measures for monetary expansion advocated or effected in the states: (1) measures to bolster the acceptance of private bank notes, where the banks had suspended specie payment and where the notes were tending to depreciate; and (2) creation of state-owned banks to issue inconvertible paper notes on a large scale. Of course, the very fact of permitting non-specie paying banks to continue in operation, was a tremendous aid to the banks.

People refer to the United States economy and monetary system at various points in time being “free market”, and while it’s true that tax rates and business regulations were generally less cumbersome near the nation’s founding than today, it is also true that there has been a virulent strain(s) of interventionist thinking and policy-making from very early on. It wasn’t until 1971 with Richard Nixon’s closing of the gold window that the US currency finally went fully inconvertible, and yet already in 1820 (if not earlier), people were calling for inconvertible paper currencies issued by state-owned banks. Some free market!

The whole episode seems to beg a question that, sadly, Rothbard did not explicitly address or explore, namely, Why did banks need to be chartered by the government in the first place? Although there were calls during the response to the economic crisis for various forms of occupational licensing and business regulation (aimed at stemming the flood of superior imports damaging local industries), the reality is that any other business but banking, such as butchering, baking, sawmilling, leather tanning, import/export, etc., did not require special permission granted by a session of the local legislature, state or federal. Why was banking different, requiring an act of congress to get the enterprise going?

Besides the fact that many such banks seemed to be public-private partnerships which included state “capital” injected into them, the only answer I have managed to come up with so far that makes any sense is that the banks were all set up on a fractional reserve basis, and a blessing by the government served to either 1.) grant legitimacy to an illegitimate institution or 2.) create the pretense and wishful thinking of providing some kind of “legal oversight” to what everyone at the outset understood to be an essentially criminal organization operating with a special legal privilege or 3.) both.

Because every bank had to be chartered, when the FRB system inevitably hit a bump in the road as it did in 1819 and many banks wished to suspend redeemability of their bank notes to stem outflows of specie, their status as creatures of the public legal mechanism meant they could run to the legislature for permission to violate their own contracts– and they almost always got the permission granted. Now, for example, if angry pitchfork-wielding townsfolk show up to break into the vault, take their gold and lynch the bankers, the Sheriff might step in with his posse to make sure everyone remembered their role.

Keynesians and monetarists and Chinese bankers

Continuing the theme of “everything new is old”, I was struck by commentary from a Pennsylvanian congressman named Henry Jarrett suggesting that government relief money might serve to prime the pump of the economy:

An inconsiderable sum of money, for which the most ample security could be given, being loaned to a single individual in a neighborhood, by passing in quick succession, would pay perhaps a hundred debts.

Kind of sounds like George W. Bush urging Americans to go shopping after 9/11, in order to get confidence in the economy back. It’s a crass Keynesian tactic inspired by a confused understanding of the relationship between production, consumption and the role of money in the economy.

It was also interesting to see how many people back then could sense there was a problem with the way the banking system operated, but were confused into thinking banking in and of itself was illegitimate, rather than simply the practice of issuing a greater supply of banknotes than the amount of specie held in reserve. Consider a campaign circular for a candidate for Congress from mid-Tennessee, who said:

banking in all its forms, in every disguise is a rank fraud upon the laboring and industrious part of society; it is in truth a scheme, whereby in a silent and secret manner, to make idleness productive and filch from industry, the hard produce of its earnings

If you substitute “banking in all its forms” with “fractional reserve banking”, you’ve got a pretty accurate description of the nature of the problem.

It’s also worth quoting at length the argument of “An Anti-Bullionist”, who thought that the economic crisis of 1819 was caused by specie money specifically, rather than abuse of specie money via fractional reserves. In its place he sought to create a fully inconvertible paper currency issued by the government which would of course be “well regulated” and serve to protect the economy from the inevitable deflationary death spiral of the specie system he believed he was witnessing. Shades of later monetarist thinking abound:

His goal was stability in the value of money; he pointed out that specie currency was subject to fluctuation, just as was paper. Moreover, fluctuations in the value of specie could not be regulated; they were dependent on export, real wages, product of mines, and world demand. An inconvertible paper, however, could be efficiently regulated by the government to maintain its uniformity. “Anti-Bullionist” proceeded to argue that the value of money should be constant and provide a stable standard for contracts. It is questionable, however, how much he wished to avoid excessive issue, since he also specifically called a depreciating currency a stimulus to industry, while identifying an appreciating currency with scarcity of money and stagnation of industry. One of the particularly desired effects of an increased money supply was to lower the rate of interest, estimated by the writer as currently 10 percent. A lowering would greatly increase wealth and prosperity. If his plan were not adopted, the writer could only see a future of ever-greater contractions by the banking system and ever-deeper distress.

Even chartalists will be happy to see that early proponents of the “American System” of nationalist public-private industry were representing their views in the debates of the early 1820s, for example:

Law pointed to the great amount of internal improvements that could be effected with the new money. He decried the slow process of accumulating money for investment out of profits. After all, the benefit was derived simply from the money, so what difference would the origin of the money make? And it would be easy for the government to provide the money, because the government “gives internal exchangeable value to anything it prefers.”

Why even have a private industry? Or money, for that matter?

Luckily, advocates of laissez-faire existed in this time period, too, and they were not silent. Commenting on one proposal to deal with “idle capital” by Matthew Carey, the “Friends of Natural Rights” wrote:

The people of the United States being in a very unenlightened condition, very indolent and much disposed to waste their labor and their capital… the welfare of the community requires that all goods, wares, mechandise and estates… should be granted to the government in fee simple, forever… and should be placed under the management of the Board of Trustees, to be styled the Patrons of Industry. The said Board should thereupon guarantee to the people of the United States that thenceforth neither the capital nor labor of this nation should remain for a moment idle.

[...]

It is a vulgar notion that the property which a citizen possesses, actually belongs to him; for he is a mere tenant, laborer or agent of the government, to whom all the property in the nation legitimately belongs. The government may therefore manage this property according to its own fancy, and shift capitalists and laborers from one employment to another.

Finally, I don’t seem to have made a good note of the specific passage that caught my attention in this regard but I chuckled when reading the description of the operations of the average bank before collapse. These bankers would set up a new bank and pay only a fraction of capital with specie, the rest would be constituted by additional promissory notes from other banking institutions (which were themselves fractional). The bankers would pay themselves dividends, in specie, while the bank operated, and issue themselves and their friends enormous loans with which they’d purchase real goods and services, all while the real specie capital of their bank depleted. When crisis hit and they could not redeem their depositors’ money, they’d get legal permission to suspend redemption, ask for infusions of new capital from state authorities and/or set up a brand new bank whose purpose was to steady the previous institution. Ultimately, the bank would collapse and this too would work in their interest because they’d already hauled off the specie via dividends to themselves, and many of them were debtors of the bank who now had loans due in a worthless currency that was easy to obtain.

It reminded me a lot of the present Chinese state capitalist model.

Conclusion

“The Panic of 1819″ is not light reading and for some readers it may not even be interesting reading. It depends a lot on how fascinating you find in depth examinations of “minor” historical economic events.

But that doesn’t mean it isn’t surprising, well-written (for all the facts and data, Rothbard still manages to weave together a narrative that helps the reader appreciate the nuances of the various factions and viewpoints of the time) and at times, depressingly relevant. People who care about economic and financial history and unique, formative episodes in the early history of this country, will find a lot of insights and curiosities in this work. I strongly recommend it.

Review – Good To Great (#business, #investing)

Good To Great: Why some companies make the leap and others don’t (buy on Amazon.com)

by Jim Collins, published 2001

A “valueprax” review always serves two purposes: to inform the reader, and to remind the writer. Find more reviews by visiting the Virtual Library

The G2G Model

“Good To Great” seeks to answer the question, “Why do some good companies become great companies in terms of their market-beating stock performance, while competitors stagnate or decline?” After a deep dive into varied data sources with a team of tens of university researchers, Collins and his team arrived at an answer:

  1. Level 5 Leadership
  2. First Who… Then What
  3. Confront The Brutal Facts (Yet Never Lose Faith)
  4. The Hedgehog Concept (Simplicity Within The Three Circles)
  5. A Culture Of Discipline
  6. Technology Accelerators

The first two items capture the importance of “disciplined people”, the second two items refer to “disciplined thought” and the final pair embodies “disciplined action”. The concepts are further categorized, with the first three components representing the “build up”, the ducks that must be gotten into a row before the second category holding the last three components, “breakthrough”, can take place. The entire package is wrapped up in the physical metaphor of the “flywheel”, something an organization pushes on and pushes on until suddenly it rolls forward and gains momentum on its own.

This book found its way onto my radar several times so I finally decided to read it. I’d heard it mentioned as a good business book in many places but first took the idea of reading it seriously when I saw Geoff Gannon mention it as part of an essential “Value Investing 101″ reading list. I didn’t actually follow through on the initial impulse until I took a “leadership science” course recently in which this book was emphasized as worth covering.

I found G2G to be almost exactly what I expected– a rather breathless, New Age-y, pseudo-philosophical and kinda-scientific handbook to basic principles of organizational management and business success.  The recommendations contained within range from the seemingly reasonable to the somewhat suspect and the author and his research team take great pains to make the case that they have built their findings on an empirical foundation but I found the “We had no theories or preconceived notions, we just looked at what the numbers said” reasoning scary. This is actually the opposite of science, you’re supposed to have some theories and then look at whether the data confirms or denies them. Data by itself can’t tell you anything and deriving theory from data patterns is the essence of fallacious pattern-fitting.

Those caveats out of the way, the book is still hard to argue with. Why would an egotistical maniac for a leader be a good thing in anything but a tyrannical political regime, for example? How would having “the wrong people on the bus” be a benefit to an organization? What would be the value in having an undisciplined culture of people who refuse to see reality for what it is?

What I found most interesting about the book is the way in which all the principles laid out essentially tend to work toward the common goal of creating a controlled decision-making structure for a business organization to protect it from the undue influence of big egos and wandering identities alike. In other words, the principles primarily address the psychological risks of business organizations connected to cult-like dependency on great leaders, tendency toward self-delusional thinking and the urge to try everything or take the easy way out rather than focus on obvious strengths. This approach has many corollaries to the value investing framework of Benjamin Graham who ultimately saw investor psychology as the biggest obstacle to investor performance.

I don’t have the time or interest to confirm this hypothesis but I did wonder how many of the market-beating performances cataloged were due primarily to financial leverage used by the organization in question, above and beyond the positive effects of their organizational structure.

A science is possible in all realms of human inquiry into the state of nature. Man and his business organizations are a part of nature and thus they fall under the rubric of potential scientific inquiry. I don’t think we’re there yet with most of what passes for business “research” and management or organizational science, but here and there the truth peeks out. “Good To Great” probably offers some clues but it’s hard to know precisely what is the wheat and what is the chaff here. Clearly if you inverted all of the recommendations of the book and tried to operate a business that way you’d meet your demise rather quickly, but that is not the same thing as saying that the recommendations as stated will lead in the other direction to greatness, or that they necessarily explain the above-average market return of these public companies.

I took a lot of notes in the margin and highlighted things that “sounded good” to me but on revisiting them I am not sure how many are as truly useful as they first seemed when I read them. I think the biggest takeaway I had from the book was the importance of questioning everything, not only as a philosophical notion but also as a practical business tool for identifying problems AND solutions.

Review – Deep Value Investing (#contrarian, #investing, @HarrimanHouse)

Deep Value Investing: Finding bargain shares with big potential (buy on Amazon.com)

by Jeroen Bos, published 2013

A “valueprax” review always serves two purposes: to inform the reader, and to remind the writer. Find more reviews by visiting the Virtual Library. Please note, I received a copy of this book for review from the publisher, Harriman House, on a complimentary basis.

Benjamin Graham’s Principles Applied

Although it provides a summary introduction to the theory of Benjamin Graham’s classic deep value (net-net and discount-to-book value) strategy, Bos’s “Deep Value Investing” is decidedly a practitioner’s guide, not a philosophical work. More accurately, it’s a collection of case studies for observation and analysis– what did and didn’t work in various key examples from Bos’s own investment portfolio.

This is the book’s strength, and weakness. It is a strength because any opportunity to peer into the portfolio of a working money manager and see not only what he’s done, but why he has done it, is often worth the price of admission. Bos gets hands on with the reader and provides the relevant information in each case study, including the start and end date and price of each trade, the relevant balance sheet information and per share calculations and a helpful chart of price movements over time to put it in perspective.

Most importantly, though, Bos provides a lot of qualitative detail that helps to flesh out the simple quantitative analysis. Many curious students of value investing will be happy to see Bos not only explains what piqued his initial interest in each security, but that he also talks about how long and why he waited to get involved in each opportunity and how he interpreted business developments in each case (positive and negative) along the way. He also provides an explanation as to why and how he exited each investment, whether it was a winner or a loser.

This is something that’s missing in most investment case study discussions and it’s a real value add with this book. Another value add is the online support materials for the book, including a record of all relevant publicly available information for each investment that Bos used in his analysis (so you can follow along and see if you can see what he saw), as well as a free eBook version of the title accessible with a special link.

As mentioned, the weakness of the book lies in the fact that it’s mostly a collection of case studies with little else to structure it. In that sense, while the material is approachable and certainly not technical or difficult by any means to comprehend, this is not a “beginner’s book” but better for a reader who has already read a more philosophical work such as Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” or “Security Analysis”. After reading those, revisiting Bos’s “Deep Value Investing” should yield many profitable insights and appreciation for what he has managed to accomplish.

Additionally, a bit of information that is normally found in these “how I do what I do” guides, that being whether or not the author supports diversification or concentration of portfolio positions and how he sizes his positions and manages his portfolio as a whole in general, are noticeably absent. The mere addition of this insightful information might have pushed this book into the “4-star” range in terms of usefulness and candor. As it is, it’s a “3-star”, though a strong 3-star candidate. A good read, but not essential in any library and by no means a classic like “Security Analysis”, though of course it has no pretensions of being so.

If you’re “deep” into deep value strategies, or want to watch over the shoulder of a talented operator, Jeroen Bos’s “Deep Value Investing” is well worth picking up! Even veteran value guys have something to learn from Bos’s “qualitative-quantitative” combined approach and especially his criteria for exiting a successful investment as it “transforms” over time from a balance sheet to earnings play.

Other Notes

Some of my other favorite observations worth noting:

1.) Liquid assets are what we’re really interested in, for the strongest margin of safety

2.) Share prices tend to be volatile, but book values tend to be stable over time

3.) Service companies tend to offer good value opportunities because they’re light on fixed assets and heavy on current assets; they also have flexible business models that can quickly scale up or down depending on business conditions

4.) Cyclical stocks always look cheapest on an earnings basis at the top of their cycle and most expensive at the bottom of their cycle (which is ironically when they’e a best buy)

5.) To better understanding accounting statement terms, compare treatment of confusing items across different companies in the same industry

6.) When evaluating trade receivables, it’s important to understand who the company’s clients are

7.) Check lists of new 52-week lows for good value investment candidates

Reminder On The Death Of “Fugitive” Marc Rich (#MarcRich, #capitalist)

Marc Rich died today in Switzerland at age 78 (Bloomberg.com).

Marc Rich, even in death, is remembered for being a “fugitive.” While his exile to Switzerland may have been self-imposed and motivated by avoiding legal entrapment in the United States, he is better remembered for being an outstanding trader of commodities, with a creative knack for getting around arbitrary political boundaries and conflicts to connect buyers and sellers of desired goods.

This aspect of Marc Rich’s life, along with his legal prosecution and other items of interest, were discussed at length in my review of The King of Oil, the official biography of Marc Rich published in 2010, three years before his death.

Review – Oglivy On Advertising (#advertising)

Oglivy On Advertising (buy on Amazon.com)

by David Oglivy, published 1985

A “valueprax” review always serves two purposes: to inform the reader, and to remind the writer. Find more reviews by visiting the Virtual Library.

How to produce advertising that sells

  • Advertising doesn’t need to be “creative”, it needs to be so interesting that a person is compelled to buy the product
  • When Aeschines spoke, they said, “How well he speaks.” But when Demosthenes spoke, they said, “Let us march against Philip.”
  • The wrong advertising can actually reduce the sales of a product
  • Study the product you are going to advertise and look for a “big idea” that can sell it (a big idea whose genesis is found in your research of the product itself)
  • Find out what kind of advertising your competitors have been doing for similar products, and with what success, to get your bearings
  • Consumer research: investigate how they think about your kind of product, what language they use when they discuss the subject, what attributes are important to them and what promises would be most likely to make them buy your brand
  • Product positioning: what the product does, and who it is for
  • Decide what image (personality) you want for your brand
  • Your advertising should consistently project the same image, year after year
  • People don’t pick products, they pick images; few customers try all products within a space and compare before picking one they like best
  • Unless your advertising contains a big idea, it will pass like a ship in the night
  • When researching: stuff your conscious mind with information and then unhook your rational thought process and see what creative ideas flow in
  • Questions to ask about a potential “big idea”: did it make me gasp when I first saw it? do I wish I had thought of it myself? is it unique? does it fit the strategy to perfection? could it be used for 30 years?
  • Make the product itself the hero of your advertising
  • Just say what’s good about your product, and do a clearer, more honest, more informative job of saying it
  • If you are lucky enough to write a good advertisement, repeat it until it stops selling
  • A good advertisement can be thought of as a radar sweep, constantly hunting new prospects as they enter the market
  • Lessons from direct response: use 2-minute commercials (not 30-seconds), there are more sales late at night (not during prime time), use long copy (not short copy)
  • Do your homework, avoid committees, learn from research, watch what the direct-response advertisers do

How to run an advertising agency

  • If each of us hires people who are smaller than us, we will become a company of dwarfs; but if each of us hires people who are taller than us, we will become a company of giants
  • Everytime I give someone a title, I make a hundred people angry and one person ungrateful
  • Even a mature agency with a pool of potential leaders does well to refresh its blood occasionally by hiring partners from outside
  • Don’t hire: your friends, partners’ children, your own children, or clients’ children (ambitious people won’t stay in organizations following nepotism)
  • It is suicide to settle for second-rate performance
  • It is a good idea to start the year by writing down exactly what you want to accomplish, and end it by measuring how much you accomplished (you can pay people bonuses based on something like this)
  • Companies cannot grow without innovation
  • Be ruthless and let all the “chefs” feel that they work in the “best kitchen in the world”
  • The more centers of leadership you create, the stronger your agency will become
  • The final test of a leader is the feeling you have after you leave his presence after a conference; have you a feeling of uplift and confidence?
  • Every company should have a written list of principles and purpose
  • Agencies are seldom for sale unless they’re in some kind of trouble
  • Retirement planning: buy the building that houses your office with your excess capital
  • Never allow two people to do a job that could be handled by one
  • Never summon people to your office, go to see them in their offices, unannounced
  • If you want to get action, communicate verbally

How to get clients/how to find an agency

  • Only first-class business, and that in a first-class kind of way
  • What you should worry about is not the price of your agency, but the selling power of its advertisements
  • Tear out the advertisements you envy, and find out which agency did them
  • Pick the agency whose campaign interests you the most
  • Don’t haggle over price and if anything, offer to pay more to ensure extra attention and service
  • Don’t keep a dog and then bark yourself

Print advertising

  • Five times as many people read the headlines as read the body copy
  • Unless your headline sells your product, you have wasted 90% of your money
  • Promise the reader a benefit
  • Headlines which contain news are sure-fire
  • Headlines that offer the reader helpful information attract above-average readership
  • Include the brand name in your headline
  • In local advertising, including the name of the city in the headline attracts better readership
  • The silliest thing of all is to run an ad without a headline
  • On illustrations: have a remarkable idea; the reader should ask, “What goes on here?” at a glance; illustrate the end-result of using your product; crowd scenes don’t pull; don’t show the human face scaled larger-than-life; babies, animals and sex catch the most attention; when you use photographs of a woman, men ignore the advertisement and vice versa
  • Remember: when people read your copy, they are alone
  • Copy should be written in a language people use everyday
  • Avoid analogies, stay away from superlatives, include a testimonial
  • An ad’s chance of success is directly proportional to the number of pertinent merchandise facts included in the copy
  • Until you have a better answer, copy others
  • Illustration at the top, headline underneath illustration, copy under headline
  • Capitals retard easy reading; don’t place periods at the end of headlines; use serifed fonts as they aid easy reading

How to make TV commercials that sell

  • The more amateurish the performance, the more credible
  • Commercials which name competing brands are less believable and more confusing
  • Provided they are relevant to your product, characters are above average in their ability to change brand-preference
  • Cartoons can sell things to children but they are below average in selling to adults
  • Use the name within the first ten seconds
  • Play games with the name
  • Open with the fire, you only have 30 seconds
  • Sound effects can make a positive difference
  • It is better to have the actors talk on camera
  • Show the viewer something she has never seen before
  • The only limit is your imagination
  • Make your commercials crystal clear
  • Because radio is a high-frequency medium, people get tired quickly of the same commercial so make several

Competing with Procter & Gamble

  • They use research to determine the most effective strategy, and they never change a successful strategy
  • They always promise the customer one important benefit
  • They believe that the first duty of advertising is to communicate effectively
  • All their commercials include a ‘moment of confirmation’
  • In 60% of commercials, they use demonstrations
  • Their commercials talk directly to the consumer, using language and situations which are familiar to her
  • They communicate the brand name, always within the first 10 seconds and an average of 3 times in addition thereafter
  • Their commercials deliver the promise verbally and reinforce it with supers
  • They show consumers what the product will do for them
  • They show the users of their products deriving some emotional benefit
  • They use slices of life, user testimonials and talking heads, all proven ad techniques
  • They do not spend their money naming competing brands
  • Continually test new executions of ongoing strategies
  • Continually test higher levels of expenditure
  • Almost all brands are advertised throughout the year

Miracles of research

  • Research lets you measure the reputation of your company
  • Research can estimate the sales of new products and the advertising expenditures necessary to earn maximum profits
  • Research can help you determine optimum positioning of your product
  • Research can define your target audience
  • Research can find out what factors are most important in the purchase decision and what vocab consumers use when talking about your kind of product
  • Research can save you time and money by ‘reading’ your competitor’s test markets
  • Research can determine the most persuasive promise; advertising which promises no benefit to the consumer does not sell, yet the majority of campaigns contain no promise; the selection of the promise is the most valuable contribution that research can make to the advertising process; try to find a process that is not only persuasive, but unique
  • Research can tell you which of several premiums work best
  • Use research to measure a commercial’s ability to change brand preferences; recall testing is a waste of time

What little I know about marketing

  • You can judge the vitality of a company by the number of new products it brings to market
  • Concentrate your time, your brains and your advertising money on your successes
  • In the long run, the manufacturer who dedicates his advertising to building the most sharply defined image for his product gets the largest market share
  • Sales are a function of product-value and advertising. Promotions can not produce more than a temporary kink in the sales curve
  • Regard advertising as part of the product, to be treated as a production cost, not a selling cost
  • The task of advertising is not primarily one of conversion but rather of reinforcement and assurance